Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Fall Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Data

The mean figure of daily murders monthly in Mexico has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent government data. But, public safety specialists have warned that murder data could fail to signal improved national security.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Figures

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in last November versus nearly 87 when the President took the leadership in September. This information was delivered by the chief of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had over these months is extremely significant,” the President said, adding that in November the lowest figure of homicides were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Violent organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's heavily military campaigns to confront the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over four times greater than the US. Since then, homicides have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has credited her public safety strategy for an apparently sharper reduction in homicides this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state declared: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Greater coordination between various agencies.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety analysts warned that relying on homicide numbers to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is especially true considering the uptick in other crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be excellent information if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the murder numbers and say: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer reliable for assessing the context of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the inclination to correctly recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly averages of daily homicides was additionally an issue because it could mask periods when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily average renders high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to government data. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

But notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by extreme bloodshed, with several states in the grip of cartel-driven violence. Last month there was a notable assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past year.

Weeks after, thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and across the country to voice their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to construct a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, socially it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas said.