A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
